The brutal 54-year reign of the Assad circle of relatives in Syria appears to be like to be over.
In a question of days, opposition forces took the most important town of Aleppo sooner than advancing southward into different government-controlled spaces of Hama, Homs and after all, on Dec 7, 2024, the capital, Damascus.
The offensive was once the entire extra astonishing for the reason that the 13-year civil warfare had in large part been in a stalemate since a 2020 ceasefire brokered via Russia and Turkey.
Reviews recommend President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and left the rustic. However what has he left in the back of and what occurs subsequent?
As a professional on Center East safety, I consider the opposition forces’ talent to care for team spirit might be important within the transition to a post-Assad Syria. For the reason that civil warfare began in 2011, the numerous opposition factions in Syria had been fractured via ideological variations and the pursuits of exterior backers – and that is still true in spite of their present victory.
In the meantime, the speedy trade of fortunes in Syria’s civil warfare poses severe questions for the ones international locations that experience sponsored one facet or the opposite within the warfare. For Iran and Russia, the autumn in their best friend Assad will harm regional aspirations. For the backers of components of the opposition – particularly Turkey but additionally the U.S., either one of which care for an army presence in Syria – there might be demanding situations, too.
Fears of a ‘catastrophic success’
Iran, the U.S., Russia and Turkey had been an important gamers all through Syria’s civil warfare.
The hot opposition offensive got here as Assad’s 3 key allies — Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — had been stretched skinny. Russia’s center of attention on Ukraine and Iran’s setbacks from Israeli moves have restricted their talent to offer Assad tough enhance, whilst Hezbollah seemed hesitant to devote further opponents, because it had performed in the past.
Then, on Dec. 2, as opposition forces had been at the transfer, Russia started taking flight naval property from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. This erosion of exterior backing considerably undermined Assad’s capability to regroup and mount an efficient counteroffensive.
Syrians rejoice the autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s authorities within the the city of Bar Elias, Lebanon, close to the border with Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024.
AP Photograph/Hassan Ammar
The U.S. will undoubtedly welcome this reduced Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However worry in Washington has already been aired over a state of affairs of “catastrophic success” during which Assad is changed via an Islamist staff that many within the West see as terrorists.
It was once individuals of the Islamist staff Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that spearheaded a lot of the opposition positive factors in Syria, combating along the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military.
And whilst Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has indirectly focused the U.S. troops stationed within the northeast – which is beneath the keep watch over of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces – instability and the potential of clashes between opposition factions and U.S. allies may build up the hazards for the 900 Syria-based American body of workers.
A fragmented panorama
The truth that other opposition teams have taken keep watch over of more than a few once-government-held spaces issues to a an important reality: Syria is admittedly partitioned. The northwest is managed via the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military. The northeast is beneath the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, supported via the US.
Regardless of a shared purpose of ousting Assad and the joint offensive on Aleppo, conflicts between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Nationwide Military are widespread. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led via Abu Mohammad al-Golani targets to claim keep watch over over opposition-held spaces, together with the ones recently controlled via the Syrian Nationwide Military.
And the Syrian Nationwide Military and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham care for complicated, steadily conflicting relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces, formed via ideological, territorial and strategic variations. The Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military ceaselessly engages in direct clashes with the Syrian Protection Forces, which Turkey perspectives as a 15 May Organization and an offshoot of the Kurdistan Staff Celebration it’s been combating in southern Turkey for greater than 4 a long time.
The opposition’s interior fragmentation would possibly weaken its talent to deliver steadiness to Syria in the end.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s enhance for his Syrian counterpart seems reduced because of the warfare in Ukraine.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Photographs
Adjustment issues
Assad’s fall can have primary implications for the ones international locations that experience a stake within the area.
Iran’s grand process of retaining the “Shia Crescent” — connecting Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and Damascus and within the procedure countering Sunni Islamist factions — has failed.
For Washington, Assad’s departure doesn’t essentially are compatible any hoped-for result.
The U.S. has prioritized balancing, containing and doubtlessly diminishing Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However till just lately that didn’t imply the elimination of Assad. The Biden management had even hinted in early December that it will be ready to raise sanctions on Syria if Assad severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah.
There was once additionally communicate of Assad’s authorities allying with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. However as town after town fell to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, it was more and more not likely that the Kurdish staff would align with the weakening Assad forces – particularly as Kurdish forces themselves made vital territorial positive factors.
Syrian Democratic Forces will wish to adapt according to the autumn of Assad. This might be doubly true if, as many await and President-elect Donald Trump has hinted at, the U.S. withdraws from Syria.
Lately, the 900 U.S. troops are in japanese Syria, along an army base in Al-Tanf, situated close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.
Must American forces withdraw, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the self sufficient area it administers — referred to as the Self sufficient Management of North and East Syria — would wish to negotiate their autonomy with each other factions of the opposition and Syrian neighbor Turkey.
A Kurdish and Islamist alliance?
The precarious function of Syrian Democratic Forces within the transition to the post-Assad generation may make for an important international coverage headache for the U.S.
Given Turkey’s historical past of army incursions and campaigns in opposition to the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern towns like Afrin and Kobani, the Kurdish staff would possibly wish to align with some factions of the opposition, most probably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, must the U.S. sooner or later withdraw.
Of past due, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has in large part have shyed away from antagonizing the Syrian Democratic Forces. Certainly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to rebrand and reasonable itself are notable, particularly given its origins as a Salafist staff with ties to al-Qaida.
By means of adopting a spread of insurance policies like issuing an amnesty for Syrian military body of workers, facilitating evacuation agreements and the use of the language of creating an ethnically and religiously numerous governance construction, the Islamist staff has tried to melt its hardline symbol and acquire desire – or a minimum of neutrality – from world stakeholders, just like the U.S.
But skepticism about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s final targets persists.
Strategic calculations for Turkey
Turkey’s place on Syria now’s similarly complicated. Turkey is house to a few.6 million Syrian refugees — the most important refugee-hosting nation globally. A protracted financial downturn and emerging anti-refugee sentiment had careworn Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sign a willingness to interact with Assad previous to the opposition offensive.
Turkey’s hope was once that normalized family members with Syria would lend a hand facilitate refugee go back and cope with issues a few attainable Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.
However Assad pushed aside such overtures, and intensified airstrikes on Idlib – triggering new waves of displacement close to the Turkish border.
Turkey’s Syria coverage could also be intently connected to its renewed peace procedure with the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration. Those talks reportedly come with discussions in regards to the attainable liberate of imprisoned Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration chief Abdullah Öcalan – whose affect runs deep in Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria.
The danger for a brand new Syria
The plain finish of Assad’s rule after part a century of brutal oppression indicates a pivotal second for Syria – providing a chance to rebuild the country on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism and steadiness.
Reaching this imaginative and prescient is dependent upon the opposition factions’ talent to navigate the immense demanding situations of transition. This contains fostering team spirit amongst numerous teams, addressing grievances from years of warfare and organising governance constructions that mirror Syria’s ethnic, non secular and political variety. That might be no simple job.
