The autumn of Bashar Assad’s dictatorship in December 2024 has ushered in a nerve-wracking time of hope and worry for Syrians relating to long term governance within the long-war-torn nation.
Whilst it’s unclear what precise political trail Syria will take, the dilemmas the rustic faces are very similar to the studies of different Arab international locations greater than a decade in the past. Within the iciness of 2010, a plague of protests in Tunisia unfold around the area, toppling a number of regimes in what changed into referred to as the Arab Uprisings.
Whilst some international locations – Egypt and Tunisia – changed into democracies, albeit in short, others, like Yemen, Libya and Syria, descended into violence.
Within the intervening years, political science students from the world over have tested those political transformations, taking a look at why such a lot of of Arab Rebellion international locations didn’t proceed down the trail of democratic reform. As a political scientist with experience within the area, I’ve distilled this analysis into 5 key courses that might lend a hand information Syria now, because it seeks to construct a strong and democratic state.
1. Islamist politicians are politicians first, Islamists 2nd
One of the crucial urgent questions when making an allowance for Syria’s post-Assad political route is the function performed by way of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the revolt crew that led the overthrow of Assad.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a former al-Qaida associate that has since subsidized clear of extremist ideology – although there are worries that this moderation is transient. Whilst some observers would possibly suppose that each one Islamist teams need to rigidly put into effect a slim interpretation of Islamic legislation just like the Taliban in Afghanistan, analysis presentations a a long way wider vary of chances for the insurance policies Islamist teams enforce whilst in workplace.
As an example, the Tunisian Islamist crew Ennahda stalwartly defended democracy and helped write a liberal charter after the rustic ousted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. In a similar fashion, in Egypt after strongman chief Hosni Mubarak was once got rid of the similar 12 months, the Muslim Brotherhood, a once-banned Islamist motion, competed effectively and quite within the democratic procedure, although, in fact, it confronted the similar demanding situations of any governing celebration in enforcing insurance policies as soon as in energy.
Anti-government protesters rejoice in Tahrir Sq. in downtown Cairo in February 2011 after the autumn of then-President Hosni Mubarak.
AP Picture/Emilio Morenatti
However neither is this sort of trail predetermined. Turkey’s contemporary democratic backslide and embody of authoritarianism presentations that Islamist politicians like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan too can undermine democracy when it serves their pursuits.
What political science analysis has became up over and over again is that Islamist politicians are like politicians all over: Once they want to win elections, they’ll gravitate towards voter issues. In step with regional survey knowledge, a majority of Arabs categorical a choice for spiritual leaders who’re apolitical.
If Syria turns into a democracy, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will, I consider, most likely must proceed to embody moderation. However whether or not the crowd backs democracy depends upon the group’s calculation of what its long term seems like in democracy as opposed to extra authoritarian sorts of governance. Wide negotiations that contain all events in Syria can lend a hand persuade Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that proceeding on a trail of moderation is of their very best pursuits. Whilst no person can forecast with simple task what Syria’s new establishments will appear to be, analysis presentations that Islamists are simply as most likely as secular events to strengthen democratic norms.
2. Finishing corruption is all vital
One of the most drivers of the Arab Spring and the Syrian revolution was once anger over corrupt industry offers. Certainly, kin and cronies of Assad owned de facto monopolies over profitable industries like cell phone networks. Unwinding those corrupt legacies and opening industries to festival and licensing will have to be an overriding precedence for the ones looking for a much less autocratic long term.
In Tunisia, established companies fought anti-corruption reforms as a result of they mentioned it could harm funding and expansion. However the reason why that financial expansion is so deficient in lots of portions of the Center East is exactly because of those entrenched firms.
Syria’s diaspora has many succesful businesspeople who can go back and located leading edge firms if the brand new authorities opens up funding and entrepreneurship past folks with political connections.
3. Political war of words is OK
Many hope that Syria’s new authorities might be freely and quite elected. For democracy to paintings, although, it will have to effectively enforce adjustments in keeping with citizens’ issues.
To begin with, Syria will want to make a decision on elementary laws like a charter, which is able to contain many various teams. This vast coalition can have an more uncomplicated time achieving compromises as a result of the opposition’s shared studies underneath the prior dictatorship. Looking to handle this solidarity, alternatively, can masks vital political debates that want to happen.
To ensure that citizens to peer exchange, electoral festival will have to yield precise coverage exchange. In Tunisia, top-heavy coalitions of events promoted solidarity as an alternative of tackling tricky choices that resonated with folks’s day by day issues. Through the years, citizens stopped figuring out with events and misplaced self belief in elections. Tunisia’s elected president, Kais Saied, took good thing about this apathy to close down the rustic’s parliament – an motion that was once widely fashionable regardless of the lack of democracy.
A realistic reaction to this fear is to construct robust events, a motive that pro-democracy organizations just like the Nationwide Democratic Institute are excellent at. Efficient events lend a hand citizens by way of placing in combination a package deal of insurance policies that may get via parliament and development coalitions.
Whilst Syria’s opposition has a large number of revel in with waging battle, it has slightly little in the way in which of operating campaigns and development robust celebration manufacturers. Those extra mundane objectives are the important thing connective tissue that makes democracy paintings.
Tunisians accumulate all over a protest in opposition to President Kais Saied in Tunis in January 2023, months after the president enacted huge new presidential powers that in large part sidelined the post-Arab Spring democratic adjustments.
AP Picture/Hassene Dridi
4. Bureaucracies will have to serve the general public
Elections make a selection leaders, however lasting, fashionable exchange additionally calls for bureaucrats who enforce new insurance policies – what’s referred to as “horizontal accountability.” Egypt’s post-2011 democratic authorities left many state establishments untouched and later confronted a rebellion from self sustaining anti-democratic businesses. In the meantime, in Sudan, which noticed a temporary interlude of liberalization after the ouster of its longtime dictator, Omar al-Bashir, in 2019, democratic reformers introduced an bold overhaul of state establishments that also failed as a result of bureaucrats lobbied politicians for strengthen.
With out cooperative bureaucrats, elementary state products and services fail, which ends up in phenomena like crime waves and a lack of self belief in democracy.
The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led authorities in Syria has already began reforming bureaucracies by way of prosecuting high-ranking officers from the prior regime whilst keeping the rank and record. Efficient oversight, although, calls for participation of elected leaders with the legitimacy to call for duty from bureaucrats. For individuals who need to be fascinated by Syria’s transition, offering technical help to temporarily rebuild ministries is one strategy to build up the percentages of a a hit transition.
5. Stay the army shut
If Syria’s new authorities collapses, historical past suggests the army would be the perhaps wrongdoer. Egypt’s army undermined the rustic’s democratic transition by way of covertly supporting the anti-Islamist opposition. Sudan’s army acquiesced to protester calls for for brand new management however stored de facto keep an eye on of vital authorities establishments.
Contemporary analysis presentations that conserving the army in test manner giving it a stake in democracy by way of investment wanted pieces like salaries and gear. Simply as vital, alternatively, is organising civilian keep an eye on over the army by way of mandating that the army report back to elected leaders about its budgets, insurance policies, and deployments. Army support is essential, sure, however nonetheless will have to be tied to strict commitments to civilian keep an eye on.
The long run is Syria’s
Political transitions are too complicated to embark on simple forecasts. However the revel in of countries who noticed democracy upward push and fall within the Arab Spring and next iciness can lend a hand Syria’s new leaders steer clear of pricey political errors.
In the long run, although, the destiny of the rustic rests with its personal folks. They’re those who survived Assad’s regime – and who will make crucial choices for Syria’s long term.
