The brutal 54-year reign of the Assad circle of relatives in Syria seems to be to be over.
In an issue of days, opposition forces took the key town of Aleppo prior to advancing southward into different government-controlled spaces of Hama, Homs and in the end, on Dec 7, 2024, the capital, Damascus.
The offensive used to be all of the extra astonishing for the reason that the 13-year civil conflict had in large part been in a stalemate since a 2020 ceasefire brokered through Russia and Turkey.
Experiences recommend President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and left the rustic. However what has he left at the back of and what occurs subsequent?
As a professional on Center East safety, I imagine the opposition forces’ skill to deal with harmony might be vital within the transition to a post-Assad Syria. Because the civil conflict began in 2011, the numerous opposition factions in Syria had been fractured through ideological variations and the pursuits of exterior backers – and that is still true regardless of their present victory.
In the meantime, the speedy exchange of fortunes in Syria’s civil conflict poses critical questions for the ones nations that experience sponsored one facet or the opposite within the war. For Iran and Russia, the autumn in their best friend Assad will harm regional aspirations. For the backers of parts of the opposition – particularly Turkey but additionally the U.S., either one of which deal with an army presence in Syria – there might be demanding situations, too.
Fears of a ‘catastrophic success’
Iran, the U.S., Russia and Turkey had been a very powerful gamers right through Syria’s civil conflict.
The hot opposition offensive got here as Assad’s 3 key allies — Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — had been stretched skinny. Russia’s focal point on Ukraine and Iran’s setbacks from Israeli moves have restricted their skill to offer Assad tough improve, whilst Hezbollah gave the impression hesitant to dedicate further opponents, because it had executed in the past.
Then, on Dec. 2, as opposition forces had been at the transfer, Russia started taking flight naval property from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. This erosion of exterior backing considerably undermined Assad’s capability to regroup and mount an efficient counteroffensive.
Syrians have a good time the autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s authorities within the the town of Bar Elias, Lebanon, close to the border with Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024.
AP Picture/Hassan Ammar
The U.S. will undoubtedly welcome this reduced Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However fear in Washington has already been aired over a situation of “catastrophic success” by which Assad is changed through an Islamist crew that many within the West see as terrorists.
It used to be participants of the Islamist crew Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that spearheaded a lot of the opposition beneficial properties in Syria, combating along the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military.
And whilst Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has indirectly focused the U.S. troops stationed within the northeast – which is beneath the keep an eye on of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces – instability and the potential of clashes between opposition factions and U.S. allies may build up the dangers for the 900 Syria-based American body of workers.
A fragmented panorama
The truth that other opposition teams have taken keep an eye on of more than a few once-government-held spaces issues to a a very powerful reality: Syria is actually partitioned. The northwest is managed through the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military. The northeast is beneath the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, supported through the US.
In spite of a shared objective of ousting Assad and the joint offensive on Aleppo, conflicts between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Nationwide Military are widespread. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led through Abu Mohammad al-Golani objectives to claim keep an eye on over opposition-held spaces, together with the ones these days controlled through the Syrian Nationwide Military.
And the Syrian Nationwide Military and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham deal with advanced, ceaselessly conflicting relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces, formed through ideological, territorial and strategic variations. The Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military regularly engages in direct clashes with the Syrian Protection Forces, which Turkey perspectives as a 15 May Organization and an offshoot of the Kurdistan Employees Birthday celebration it’s been combating in southern Turkey for greater than 4 many years.
The opposition’s interior fragmentation would possibly weaken its skill to deliver balance to Syria ultimately.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s improve for his Syrian counterpart seems reduced because of the conflict in Ukraine.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Pictures
Adjustment issues
Assad’s fall could have primary implications for the ones nations that experience a stake within the area.
Iran’s grand technique of conserving the “Shia Crescent” — connecting Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and Damascus and within the procedure countering Sunni Islamist factions — has failed.
For Washington, Assad’s departure doesn’t essentially are compatible any hoped-for end result.
The U.S. has prioritized balancing, containing and doubtlessly diminishing Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However till not too long ago that didn’t imply the removing of Assad. The Biden management had even hinted in early December that it will be ready to raise sanctions on Syria if Assad severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah.
There used to be additionally communicate of Assad’s authorities allying with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. However as town after town fell to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, it become an increasing number of not going that the Kurdish crew would align with the weakening Assad forces – particularly as Kurdish forces themselves made important territorial beneficial properties.
Syrian Democratic Forces will wish to adapt according to the autumn of Assad. This might be doubly true if, as many look ahead to and President-elect Donald Trump has hinted at, the U.S. withdraws from Syria.
Lately, the 900 U.S. troops are in japanese Syria, along an army base in Al-Tanf, positioned close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.
Must American forces withdraw, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the independent area it administers — referred to as the Independent Management of North and East Syria — would wish to negotiate their autonomy with each other factions of the opposition and Syrian neighbor Turkey.
A Kurdish and Islamist alliance?
The precarious function of Syrian Democratic Forces within the transition to the post-Assad generation may make for an important overseas coverage headache for the U.S.
Given Turkey’s historical past of army incursions and campaigns towards the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern towns like Afrin and Kobani, the Kurdish crew would possibly wish to align with some factions of the opposition, most probably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, must the U.S. ultimately withdraw.
Of overdue, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has in large part have shyed away from antagonizing the Syrian Democratic Forces. Certainly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to rebrand and reasonable itself are notable, particularly given its origins as a Salafist crew with ties to al-Qaida.
Via adopting a variety of insurance policies like issuing an amnesty for Syrian military body of workers, facilitating evacuation agreements and the usage of the language of creating an ethnically and religiously numerous governance construction, the Islamist crew has tried to melt its hard-line symbol and acquire desire – or a minimum of neutrality – from world stakeholders, just like the U.S.
But skepticism about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s final goals persists.
Strategic calculations for Turkey
Turkey’s place on Syria now could be similarly advanced. Turkey is house to a few.6 million Syrian refugees — the biggest refugee-hosting nation globally. A chronic financial downturn and emerging anti-refugee sentiment had harassed Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sign a willingness to interact with Assad previous to the opposition offensive.
Turkey’s hope used to be that normalized members of the family with Syria would assist facilitate refugee go back and cope with issues a couple of possible Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.
However Assad disregarded such overtures, and he intensified airstrikes on Idlib – triggering new waves of displacement close to the Turkish border.
Turkey’s Syria coverage may be carefully connected to its renewed peace procedure with the Kurdistan Employees’ Birthday celebration. Those talks reportedly come with discussions concerning the possible free up of imprisoned Kurdistan Employees’ Birthday celebration chief Abdullah Öcalan – whose affect runs deep in Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria.
The danger for a brand new Syria
The obvious finish of the Assad circle of relatives’s rule after part a century of brutal oppression indicates a pivotal second for Syria – providing a chance to rebuild the country on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism and balance.
Attaining this imaginative and prescient relies on the opposition factions’ skill to navigate the immense demanding situations of transition. This contains fostering harmony amongst numerous teams, addressing grievances from years of war and setting up governance constructions that replicate Syria’s ethnic, spiritual and political range. That might be no simple process.
