Saudi Arabia is two,000 miles from Ukraine and much more politically far-off, so in the beginning look it will appear love it has not anything to do with the continued battle there. However the Gulf state has emerged as a key middleman in essentially the most critical ceasefire negotiations since Russia invaded its neighbor 3 years in the past.
Whilst it’s U.S. officers who’re without a doubt main the efforts for an settlement, it’s the Saudi capital of Riyadh that has been staging the the most important talks.
In a flurry of diplomatic process on March 10, 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the rustic’s best political authority, hosted separate conferences with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a U.S. delegation led via Secretary of State Marco Rubio and nationwide safety adviser Mike Waltz.
The next day to come, senior Saudi officers facilitated face-to-face conferences between U.S. and Ukrainian delegations.
The ensuing settlement, which is now being mulled in Moscow, is the entire extra notable for the reason that it adopted a diplomatic breakdown simply weeks ahead of on the Oval Administrative center between Zelenskyy, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
Whether or not the proposed period in-between 30-day ceasefire materializes remains to be unsure. On March 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned he agreed with the proposal in idea, however he added that numerous the main points had to be taken care of out.
Will have to a deal be reached, there may be each and every reason why to consider it’ll be inked in Saudi Arabia, which has hosted no longer handiest the newest U.S.-Ukrainian talks however previous rounds of high-level Russian-U.S. conferences.
However why is a Gulf country enjoying mediator in a battle in Jap Europe? As knowledgeable on Saudi politics, I consider the solution to that lies within the kingdom’s diplomatic ambitions and its want to offer a extra sure symbol to the sector. And within the background is the objective of higher positioning the country within the match of diplomatic maneuvers in its personal area, particularly with regard to any talks between U.S. and Iran.
The diplomatic convertion of MBS
Saudi Arabia’s rising diplomatic position has been a function of the dominion’s overseas coverage since 2022.
Crown Prince Mohammed, who that yr succeeded his father as high minister, perspectives Saudi Arabia because the convening energy within the Arab and Islamic global.
Accordingly, officers within the kingdom had been directed to guide regional international relations over a variety of urgent problems, together with the conflicts in Gaza and Sudan.
On the identical time, Saudis have began the method of reconciliation with Iran, which has lengthy been perceived as the manager regional rival to Saudi affect.
This flip to international relations marks a shift clear of the confrontational insurance policies followed via the crown prince all through his upward thrust to energy in Saudi Arabia between 2015 and 2018. Insurance policies equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s army intervention in Yemen, its blockade of Qatar, the detention of Lebanon’s Top Minister Saad Hariri and the conversion of the Ritz-Carlton lodge in Riyadh right into a makeshift jail all fed a picture of the younger prince as an impulsive decision-maker. Then in 2018 got here the homicide of journalist Jamal Khashoggi within the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.
This manner introduced little in the way in which of steadiness. Quite, it left the rustic ensnared in an unwinnable battle in Yemen, a fruitless row with Qatar, and diplomatic isolation via Western officers.
A chum to Ukraine and Russia
Regarding the battle in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia’s middleman position is helped via a belief of the dominion as a impartial country at the battle.
Saudi officers, in not unusual with their opposite numbers within the different Gulf states, have lengthy sought to keep away from taking facets within the rising generation of serious energy pageant and strategic competition. As such, the dominion has maintained operating family members with each Russia and pro-Western Ukraine for the reason that outbreak of battle in Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meet in Riyadh on Dec. 6, 2023.
Alexey Nikolsky/AFP by the use of Getty Pictures
In 2022, as an example, Saudi Arabia and Russia – each leaders of OPEC+ – coordinated oil manufacturing cuts to cushion Moscow from the results of worldwide sanctions the West imposed after it invaded Ukraine. But simply months later, Saudi Arabia invited Zelenskyy to deal with an Arab League summit within the Saudi town of Jeddah.
It used to be a prelude to a 2023 global summit, additionally in Jeddah, which introduced in combination representatives from 40 international locations to talk about the continued battle.
Regardless of failing to supply a step forward, the assembly illustrated the convening achieve of the crown prince and his aim to behave as a diplomatic go-between within the Ukraine-Russia battle.
Saudi Arabia and neighboring United Arab Emirates later facilitated occasional prisoner exchanges between the 2 international locations – uncommon diplomatic successes in 3 years of battle.
Staging floor for international relations
Direct engagement in high-stakes global international relations over the biggest battle in Europe since 1945 is without a doubt a step up in Saudi ambitions. However the nation’s efforts aren’t purely altruistic. Riyadh believes there’s mileage to be won in such diplomatic endeavors.
The arrival of a Trump presidency has have compatibility Saudi wants. Trump has made his want to be noticed as a dealmaker and peacemaker transparent, however he wishes a impartial venue during which the onerous paintings of international relations can flourish.
Simply weeks into the brand new U.S. management, the Saudi capital hosted the primary assembly between a U.S. secretary of state and Russian overseas minister since Russia invaded in 2022.
It yielded an settlement to “re-establish the bilateral relationship” and identify a session mechanism to “address irritants” in ties.
The 2 rounds of discussion in Riyadh – first with Russia, then Ukraine – have situated the Saudi management firmly within the diplomatic procedure. It has additionally long gone some technique to rehabilitate Mohammed bin Salman’s symbol.
The sight of the crown prince warmly greeting Zelenskyy contrasted sharply with the pictures from a fractious White Space assembly that went all over the world, presenting the crown prince as a statesmanlike determine.
Turning to Tehran
Such sure optics would have appeared not possible as not too long ago as 2019, when the crown prince used to be refrained from after which presidential candidate Joe Biden categorized the rustic a “pariah” state.
Converting this destructive international belief of Saudi Arabia is the most important if the dominion is to draw the tens of thousands and thousands of holiday makers which are pivotal to the luck of the “giga-projects” – sports activities, tradition and tourism occasions that the Saudis hope will power its financial system and make allowance the dominion to be much less economically depending on fossil gas exports.
While easing tensions with Iran and supporting Yemen’s fragile truce are about derisking the dominion’s vulnerability to regional volatility, facilitating international relations over Ukraine is a fairly cost-free technique to strengthen the converting narratives about Saudi Arabia.
In the end, any breakdown within the Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations is not likely to be blamed at the Saudis.
Certainly, Saudi officers would possibly view their engagement with U.S. officers over Ukraine because the prelude to additional diplomatic cooperation. And this might be very true if Crown Prince Mohammed is in a position to identify himself as an indispensable spouse within the eyes of Trump.
Saudi officers have been excluded from the remaining main talks between Iran and the U.S., which additionally concerned a number of different main global powers and resulted in the 2016 Iran nuclear deal. Trump withdrew from the deal in a while after assuming workplace for the primary time in 2017, and U.S.-Iranian family members had been moribund since then.
The U.S. management has already mooted the speculation of a resumption of negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear functions.
Putting Saudi Arabia in the course of any makes an attempt to safe a brand new nuclear settlement that may exchange or supersede that previous deal can be a high-risk transfer, given the depth of feeling on each the U.S. and Iranian facets and the uneasy coexistence between Tehran and Riyadh.
However doing so would give the dominion what it maximum wants: a seat on the desk.
