Elon Musk holds an oversized affect within the new Trump management.
As head of his Division of Executive Potency, or DOGE, the arena’s wealthiest guy has loved just about unfettered political energy in slashing and refashioning the government as he sees have compatibility. And it has temporarily turn into transparent that he has the president’s ear on problems past that temporary.
However on one matter, Musk stands slightly excluding others within the coterie of aides and advisers round Trump: China. By contrast to the various hawks within the new Trump cupboard who name for a hard-line manner on China, Musk is a hanging outlier.
As knowledgeable on China-U.S. family members who has monitored Musk’s perspectives on China, I don’t in finding his lengthy historical past of espousing pro-Chinese language sentiment sudden, for the reason that he has sought during to get a trade hang within the nation.
However the ones entanglements are price scrutiny, given Musk’s function within the Trump management at a time when one in every of The usa’s greatest overseas coverage demanding situations is the best way to arrange its courting with Beijing.
Musk’s adventure to the East
For years, Musk has had important trade pursuits in China, with Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility, Tesla Giga Shanghai, taking part in a a very powerful function within the corporate’s world operations.
Since its opening in 2019, the Shanghai plant has surpassed Tesla’s Fremont, California, facility in each measurement and productiveness, now accounting for greater than part of the corporate’s world deliveries and a majority of its income. Additionally, just about 40% of Tesla’s battery provide chain is determined by Chinese language firms, and those partnerships proceed to extend.
Elon Musk walks with Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong right through the groundbreaking rite for a Tesla manufacturing facility in Shanghai on Jan. 7, 2019.
STR/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
Particularly, Tesla was once the primary overseas automaker authorised to ascertain operations in China and not using a native spouse, following a transformation in possession rules. The Shanghai manufacturing facility was once built with the reinforce of US$1.4 billion in loans from Chinese language state-owned banks, granted at favorable rates of interest.
Between 2019 and 2023, the Shanghai executive additionally equipped Tesla with a discounted company tax charge of 15% – 10 proportion issues not up to the usual charge.
The price benefits of producing in Shanghai, which come with decrease manufacturing and exertions bills, have additional cemented Tesla’s reliance at the Chinese language marketplace.
For the reason that Musk’s wealth is in large part tied to Tesla inventory, his monetary status is more and more dependent at the corporate’s fortunes in China, making any attainable disengagement from the rustic each economically and strategically difficult.
Tesla’s endured funding in China underscores this dependency. On Feb. 11, 2025, the corporate opened its moment manufacturing facility in Shanghai — a $200 million plant this is set to supply 10,000 megapack batteries yearly. It’s the corporate’s first megapack battery manufacturing facility out of doors the U.S..
This funding deepens Tesla’s presence in China amid a brand new wave of U.S.-China business tensions. On Feb. 1, the Trump management imposed a ten% tariff on Chinese language imports, prompting Beijing’s retaliation with price lists on American coal, liquefied herbal fuel, agricultural apparatus and crude oil.
A Chinese language fan
It stays unclear to what extent Musk’s monetary pursuits in China will translate to actual affect over the Trump management’s coverage towards Beijing. However Musk’s lengthy historical past of pro-China remarks suggests the course he needs the management to transport.
All through his discuss with to Beijing in April 2024, Musk praised the rustic, noting additionally: “I also have a lot of fans in China – well, the feeling is mutual.”
His admiration seems to hinge partially on how he perspectives trade and exertions practices in China. In that vein, Musk has criticized American employees as lazy and has confronted U.S. exertions regulation disputes, whilst concurrently praising Chinese language employees for “burning the 3 a.m. oil” below an intensely repressive exertions gadget.
In a large number of posts at the social media platform X, previously Twitter, which he owns, Musk has additionally praised China’s infrastructure and high-speed rail gadget, lauded its area program, applauded its management in world inexperienced power projects and advised his fans to discuss with the rustic.
Musk has additionally adversarial U.S. efforts to decouple from China, describing the nations’ economies as “conjoined twins,” in spite of a large a part of the overseas coverage established order within the West viewing reduced dependency on China as essential for safety pursuits amid emerging geopolitical tensions.
At the factor of Taiwan, probably the most bad flashpoint in U.S.-China family members, Musk has when compared Taiwan to Hawaii, arguing that it’s an integral a part of China and noting that the U.S. Pacific Fleet has avoided mainland China from attaining reunification by way of power.
Musk additional instructed that the Taiwan dispute may well be resolved by way of permitting China to ascertain Taiwan as a unique administrative zone, very similar to Hong Kong.
His remarks had been shared and welcomed by way of China’s then-ambassador to the U.S., who, in a submit on X, emphasised China’s so-called non violent unification technique and advocated for the “one country, two systems” style.
Trump’s back-channel envoy?
The massive query going ahead is how Musk’s monetary stakes in, and said admiration for, China will translate into makes an attempt to steer the U.S. management’s China coverage, specifically given Musk’s unconventional advisory function and the sturdy faction of anti-China hawks in Trumpworld.
Given Musk’s option to China, it’s demanding to peer him no longer attempting to make use of his affect with the president to push for slightly hotter family members with Beijing.
If such suggest had been heeded, it’s simple to ascertain Musk leveraging his deep ties to China, specifically his shut non-public courting with China’s present second-ranking professional, Premier Li Qiang, who was once the Shanghai birthday party leader when Tesla’s manufacturing facility was once constructed. Within the state of affairs, Donald Trump may just faucet Musk as a again channel for international relations to ease U.S.-China tensions and facilitate bilateral cooperation when wanted.
So far, it was once, in all probability, telling that it was once Musk who met with China President Xi Jinping’s envoy to Trump’s inauguration, Vice President Han Zheng, at the eve of the development.
Nevertheless it’s a ways from positive that Trump needs that diplomatic function for Musk, or that different voices gained’t win out with reference to Beijing. In his first time period, Trump introduced an unheard of business battle and tech blockade in opposition to China, essentially reshaping U.S.-China family members and pushing the U.S. towards one thing of a bipartisan consensus to counter Beijing that has existed for a number of years.
Trump’s tariff strikes and second-term alternatives for most sensible business and trade roles, like Peter Navarro and Jamieson Greer — who performed key roles within the business battle in opposition to China right through the president’s first time period — counsel that Trump’s dedication to additional decoupling from China stays sturdy.
Moreover, Musk’s trade pursuits and private wealth tied to China may just go away him at risk of Chinese language affect. Via leaning on Musk’s shut ties with Trump, China may just use his dependence at the Chinese language marketplace as a bargaining chip to force Trump into making concessions on problems with main strategic significance to Beijing.
China has a historical past of coercing overseas firms reliant on its marketplace into making compromises on issues relating to its nationwide pursuits. As an example, Apple got rid of digital non-public community apps from its app retailer in China on the executive’s request. In a similar fashion, Tesla may just face related force someday if Beijing needs to make use of Musk as a cudgel to steer coverage within the Trump management. Particularly, as the top of DOGE, with get entry to to delicate information from a couple of companies, Musk may just in finding himself stuck between U.S. safety scrutiny and China’s strategic concentrated on.
As long as Musk keeps the affect with Trump that he holds now, it’s possible that his pro-China sentiments will translate into makes an attempt to steer executive coverage. But even supposing that is to be the case, whether or not the ones efforts be triumphant depends on the president and his different advisers, a lot of whom are looking for an competitive entrance in opposition to Beijing and are prone to view Musk as an obstacle moderately than best friend in that combat to come back.
